May 5, 2010 by Walter Schneider.

Climate forecasts are wrong because they violate forecasting principles.

Public Policy Forecasting

Special Interest Group

Comments on the United States Department of State’s U.S. Climate Action Report 2010, 5th ed.

May 4, 2010

Scott Armstrong, Kesten Green, and Willie Soon made a submission titled “Global Warming Alarm Based on Faulty Forecasting Procedures” on the State Department’s report:

Our research findings challenge the basic assumptions of the State Department’s Fifth U.S. Climate Action Report (CAR 2010). The alarming forecasts of dangerous manmade global warming are not the product of proper scientific evidence-based forecasting methods. Furthermore, there have been no validation studies to support a belief that the forecasting procedures used were nevertheless appropriate for the situation. As a consequence, alarming forecasts of global warming are merely the opinions of some scientists and, for a situation as complicated and poorly understood as global climate, such opinions are unlikely to be as accurate as forecasts that global temperatures will remain much the same as they have been over recent years. Using proper forecasting procedures we predict that the global warming alarm will prove false and that government actions in response to the alarm will be shown to have been harmful.

Whether climate will change over the 21st Century, by how much, in what direction, to what effect, and what if anything people could and should do about any changes are all forecasting problems. Given that policy makers currently do not have access to scientific forecasts for any of these, the policies that have been proposed with the avowed purpose of reducing dangerous manmade global warming—such as are described in CAR 2010 Chapters 4, 5, 6, and 7—are likely to cause serious and unnecessary harm.

In this comment on CAR 2010, we summarize findings from our research on forecasting climate. Most of our findings have been published in the peer-reviewed literature and all have been presented at scientific meetings. They are easily accessible on the Internet and we provide links to them. (Source)

A copy of their submission is available here.

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May 5, 2010 by Walter Schneider.

The Cypress Times

BARACK OBAMA, AL GORE, GOLDMAN SACHS, AND THE GREATEST SWINDLE IN HUMAN HISTORY
By Gary P.
Published 05/04/2010 - 12:04 p.m. CST

“It is the Responsibility of the Patriot to protect his country from its government” ~Thomas Paine

$10,000,000,000,000

Ten trillion dollars. That’s the conservative estimate of the amount of money Barack Obama, Albert Gore Jr., and a whole cast of criminals stand to make yearly (gross) off of the greatest scam in human history: “global warming.”…(Full Story)
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It is an amazing summary of the creation of cap-and-trade, and, of course, Maurice Strong is one of the key players involved in it all along.

The story covers the business angle of it and some of what it will cost us normal mortals.  There is a related story that just came to light in connection with the publishing of a book, Climate: The Counter Consensus, by Professor Robert Carter, a renowned paleoclimatologist.

Professor Robert Carter was interviewed in relation to the issues addressed in Climate: The Counter Consensus.  Prof. Carter explained that, with respect to the concern with climate change, there are three separate climate change realities:

1. The scientific reality, the scientific observations of the aspects of climate change, aspects that show man-made impacts are minuscule and so insignificant that they cannot be measured;
2. The virtual reality, projections based on computer modelling, projections whose validity cannot be tested scientifically and that have no to a vanishingly-small chance of being correct, too small for anyone to have to worry about them; and
3. The socio-political reality, a reality that politicians and bureaucrats must deal with, a reality of their own creation that got the general public needlessly worked up into being alarmed and worried about climate change, whereby the public now expects and clamors that the politicians do something to save them from the dangers posed by the imaginary calamities of climate change, so as to take actions that will save the world from climate change, actions that will not be necessary and will have no effect at all.

The full story on that is accessible here.  Don’t neglect to look up the video of the interview.  (More information on and by Dr. Carter)

The first story, above, the one about the fraud and corruption of the fortunes of cap-and-trade, falls into the realm of the third reality listed above.

Posted in Corruption & Fraud, Climate Change | Print | 3 Comments »