Cause and Effect

July 27, 2009 by Walter Schneider.

Does CO2 cause global warming?

Maybe, but most likely not, as there is no evidence at all to show that rising atmospheric CO2 levels cause global warming.

The ice core data established a correlation between CO2 levels and temperatures.  However, the first studies that were done did not provide enough detail to show whether temperature trends followed CO2-level trends or vice-versa.  Subsequent studies examined things in more detail and established beyond any doubt that CO2-level trends followed temperature trends with a time lag of about 600 to 1,200 years.  People like David Suzuki and Al Gore deliberately ignored those later findings, and they still ignore them. (For more information on the CO2 issue, check: CO₂: The Greatest Scientific Scandal of Our Time; by Zbigniew Jaworowski, M.D., Ph.D., D.Sc.)

On July 24, 2009, a new study report was announced in Science, a report on a study that examined the correlation between cloud cover and temperature trends in a portion of the NE Pacific, covering the interval from about 1976 until now.

The conclusion is that warming of the surface causes clouds to dissipate, thereby providing a positive feedback, meaning that a reduction in clouds causes a temperature rise, with increased cloud cover causing surface temperatures to fall.

That conclusion is contrary to my observations and also contrary to established science, but, hey, scientists once believed that the universe revolved around the Earth.  Besides, one of the comments that can be accessed through the link identified above shows,

Claude Harvey (02:44:59) :
I’ve noticed that the wind never blows unless trees are wagging about. Who knew? Trees cause wind! At sea, I’m pretty sure the wind is generated by waves, particularly the white ones.

If Al Gore, David Suzuki and the UN’s IPCC can confuse cause and effect in relation to CO2, why should anyone not also confuse the cause and effect of temperatures and clouds? The issue is very important, as not a single one of the Global Circulation Models adequately addresses the role of clouds.

Dr. Roy Spencer discusses both, the role of clouds and the extent of the impact of doubling the CO2 content of the atmosphere in a presentation that can be accessed on YouTube.  Here are the links:  Part 1, and Part 2.

In the meantime, enjoy the rest of the summer while waiting for the next ice age (its onset is about 500 years overdue) to set in in earnest (b.t.w., the Saskatoon berries are two weeks late this year).

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See also:

New Study in Science Magazine: Proof of Positive Cloud Feedback?

July 26th, 2009 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.(edited 12:15 p.m. 7/26/09 for clarity)
(3:25 p.m. DOH! Hawaii IS part of the U.S…)

I’m getting a lot of e-mails asking about a new study by Clement et al. published last week in Science, which shows that since the 1950s, periods of warmth over the northeastern Pacific Ocean have coincided with less cloud cover. The authors cautiously speculate that this might be evidence of positive cloud feedback.

This would be bad news for the Earth and its inhabitants since sufficiently strong positive cloud feedbacks would have the potential of amplifying the small amount of direct warming from our carbon dioxide emissions to disastrous proportions.

The authors are appropriately cautious about the interpretation of their results, which are indeed interesting. The very fact that the only 2 IPCC climate models that behaved in a manner similar to the observations were the most sensitive AND the least sensitive models shows that interpretation of the study results as proof of positive cloud feedback would be very premature….(Full Story)

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