Global Warming Update

April 21, 2009 by Walter Schneider.

During the past few weeks some people asked me whether global warming is really happening, with the implication being, if it is truly happening, whether it is man-made (a.k.a. “anthropogenic”).

I am neither a climatologist nor a meteorologist.  Most certainly, aside from recording daily rain-fall amounts and temperatures over a considerable number of years when we were still farming, I have not been involved in climatological research or studies of long-term meteorological trends.  Still, what measurements I took somewhat improved my ability to predict short-term weather trends, so as to give me a slight edge over the unreliability of weather forecasts, for coming a little closer to accurately predict one-week weather trends.  That was important for planning the operations for harvesting hay, our main crop.  The advantages I gained more than paid me back for the effort it took to do the recording over the years.

One thing I found was that weather in our area generally happened in seven-day cycles.  I tried to determine what caused those cycles but was never able to accurately determine why that was so.  In the process of trying to find the answer to the question, I developed an active interest in climate and meteorological research.  During the course of that I found that we generally are being lied to, perhaps not deliberately, although some of the proponents of climate alarmism do have a vested interest in spreading climate alarmism and hype.  The more alarmism they create, the more money they stand to gain.

What I discovered from the work done by many eminent researchers (no, people like Al Gore and David Suzuki are not members of that community of researchers) is that, yes, there is global warming (as well as cooling), and that the warming and cooling happens in cycles that exhibit cyclical variations, over a few years and over hundreds, thousands and millions of years.  Those cycles have been happening over a period of time that stretches back for hundreds of millions of years.

And no, global warming is not or is only imperceptibly caused by man.  The extent of what man-made global warming exists or ever existed is so small that it can only be estimated, aside from local influences such as in someone’s house or in a city.

Some of the best explanations of what is at work with global warming in the short and long term have been put together by Roy Spencer, Ph.D., climatologist, author and former NASA scientist.  Roy Spencer’s latest updates of information on that are accessible at his home page, in an article called “Some Global Warming Q&A To Consider in Light of the EPA Ruling“.

That article contains a number of links to background information that should be looked up by anyone reading the article.  For instance, there is a link to a very revealing study report regarding the alleged imminent extinction of the polar bears.  The article identifies that without a doubt the polar bears will have no trouble surviving the alleged vanishing of the arctic sea ice, at the very least for the next 100 years or more.  They have done so before and will do so again.  Moreover, the article identifies that the categorization of a population of about 24,000 polar bears as being endangered is somewhat excessive, especially in view of the following.

Over 100 years, total polar bear numbers were projected to decline about 30% from 24,500 to 17,180. In 45 ears numbers declined about 17% from 24,500 to 20,405. For comparison, the National Wildlife Federation the largest conservation organization in the United States) supports ESA delisting Yellowstone grizzly bears with an estimated population of 600. The projected decline of polar bears and polar bear habitat is serious and should be taken seriously, however these results do not suggest polar bears are in danger of extinction in 45 years or even 100 years. One hundred years is well beyond the “foreseeable future” if the time machine is contemporary climate model (Serreze et al. 2007, DeWeaver 2007). [p. 21, 2nd paragraph]

That is all the more so if one considers that about 700 polar bears a year are being “harvested”, that is killed by hunting.

All in all, Dr. Spencer’s article provides a lot of food for thought for those given to rely on common sense rather than on alarmist hype.

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